E Gold Suffers Technical Damage

Gold suffered significant technical damage as prices broke down below $1300 and $1250. However, miners didn’t confirm the collapse in gold; prices merely drifted lower in a consolidation pattern. For that reason, I felt the attack on gold would be short-lived…though it lasted longer than I anticipated.

The 6-Month gold cycle stretched 29-weeks (average is 23-weeks) but it looks likes prices finally bottomed. Miners diverged and reversed higher on June 28th as gold extended lower into July 3rd. We could see some hesitation as gold recaptures the 10-day EMA, but prices have likely begun the next cycle advance.

There is notable resistance in gold between $1290 and $1310 that may prove challenging to overcome. Nevertheless, I believe we will regain these strongholds in the coming weeks as gold forges a path that ultimately breaks out above $1370 later this year.


Prices closed below the first level required to establish a top. The topping process may take some time, but I believe the dollar will descend back below the 200-day MA and perhaps to new 2018 lows by year-end.


Prices tested the longer term trendline, the 200-week MA, the December $1,238.30 low and stretched 6-weeks beyond the average (23-week) cycle duration. Sentiment is bearish, and the COT status is consistent with prior lows. Virtually everything supports a bottom. I expect gold to work its way higher and ultimately breakout above $1370 within the next 2-4 months.


Prices should work their way back above the 10-week EMA next week. Typically, the bulk of the advance coming out of a 6-Month low occurs during the first 6-8 weeks.


Platinum has been the worst performing precious metal for some time. Prices are at long-term support, and the COT picture has improved dramatically. Now, this doesn’t guarantee an immediate bottom, but I believe the bear market is about over.


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