Gold Review

Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Gold is following the phases rather than random movements. Evolution of the Trade (EOT) breaks the flow of price, time, and energy into the following phases:

(1) Energy build or Nibble
(2) Flip
(3) RESET
(4) Primary Trend Decline

Gold's Nibble phase took place from July to September 2018. The green circle highlights the NIBBLE, a large bullish energy build against the majority's pessimism (see Gold's DI). I remember writing about it, suggesting that the majority believing the gurus that said gold was on the verge of catastrophic collapse were most likely wrong.

The primary trend FLIPPED UP after the nibble on 1/1/19. The primary trend has been UP for 23 months (see Matrix Gold Column H). Primary uptrend has highlighted green in the chart below. Green boxes help us visualize the uptrend, but the cycles of price and time are its most important aspects. These cannot be visualized - only the computer can describe them.

Gold Monthly (Primary) Trend



The composite trend, a combination of the daily, weekly, and monthly trend directions, has been in and out of alignment several times since 1/1/19. The daily price and time cycles often got (get) extended and required a reset of the three trends for continuation of mark up (see Cycle of Accumulation and Distribution for further discussion of mark up). Bearish energy builds, highlighted by red circles referred to as blocking domes, often slow markup and force a reset. The most recent red circle represents, a large energy build against the primary trend (up), materialized as the daily trend was showing extreme price and time cycles. A similar setup showed in silver. At the time, I warned that the setup increased the probability that the composite trend would fall out of alignment against a backdrop of euphoria towards gold and silver.

Gold's daily columns (columns P-Y) showed that gold fell out of alignment 13 days ago. The daily cycle statistics reveal price (BrS) and time (BrST) cyles of 1.2 and 0.1. In other words, the recent decline, while painful, is still not statistically extended in terms of price or time. BrS and BrST readings above 1.96 define ‘extreme’ extension. While gold experts are scrambling to call the bottom, we (smart money) ignore them and wait for extremes. The old trading saying (it's least it's mine) applies here.
 

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Disclaimer: Content provided by Eric De Groot is intended as general information and not specific recommendations. Individuals are responsible for their own investment decisions. Past ...

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