GOLD PRICE ANALYSIS AND TALKING POINTS:

• Dovish Central Banks Underpin Gold
• Fed to Stick to Script, Focus on US CPI

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral

Gold prices posted marginal gains of 0.4% over the week following the technical correction from the prior week. Having bounced off support at $1280, the precious metal trades just south of the psychological $1300 handle. Among the supporting factors for gold has been the dovish stance held across global central banks with this week seeing the RBA, BoC and ECB point out that normalisation is not on the horizon in the near-term, with the latter in fact adding fresh stimulus.

Next week’s Economic Calendar

FED TO STICK TO SCRIPT, FOCUS ON US CPI

While Fed Chair Powell is set to speak over the weekend, it is likely that the Fed Chair will continue to stick with the patience mantra and as such, it is unlikely that his views will deviate from the current script. Consequently, among the key factors that will dictate gold prices over the course of the week, will be the plethora of tier 1 data from the US, most notably the latest inflation figures. The latest NFP served as a reminder that wage pressures are building, which in turn raises the prospect that this may begin to filter into inflation.

GOLD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME-FRAME (AUG 2018-DEC 2018)

Chart by IG