The 2020 U.S. election is taking place on Nov. 3 with President Donald Trump and former Vice-President Joe Biden battling for the lead position.

Gold Price Analysis 

The U.S. presidential election will play a huge role in shaping the global economy and gold prices are expected to react in the run-up to the election day. So how important is it for the safe haven asset gold if Biden or Trump makes it to the White House?

“There is no doubt that we are likely to see increased volatility in stock markets in the run up to the election day and investors seeking traditional safe havens such as gold, particularly if the race between the two candidates gets very close and there is a growing risk of a contested outcome,” writes Saida Litosh, manager of precious metals analysis at Refinitiv.

Biden or Trump Impact

If the past is any indication, a second Trump administration would mean a “turbulent and polarizing first term” which in turn would add further volatility and uncertainty, although the potential for radical policies could be lower in the second term should Congress remain divided, Refinitiv highlights.

However, a Biden win would represent a return to a more conventional administration resulting in less volatility associated with political risks and international tensions.

“Historically gold price movements in the aftermath of previous U.S. presidential elections suggests little evidence of a clear relationship between the gold price and the election outcome based on party affiliation,” says Litosh.

Fosterville South Exploration CEO Bryan Slusarchuk says, for thousands of years, gold has acted as a hedge against uncertainty, a currency and a store of wealth. Both Trump and Biden have promised huge amounts of stimulus and huge amounts of easing.

"Both [Trump and Biden] have been vocally supportive of various policies that amount to quantitative easing and therefore gold ought to react well no matter who is elected,” says Slusarchuk.

Stepping beyond financial conditions, which will serve to propel gold higher, we need to consider gold’s function as a hedge against uncertainty, says Slusarchuk.

Gold Has Explosive Upside

Slusarchuk says this election is going to be perhaps the most divisive election in the history of the United States.

"It may be contested, the outcome may not be certain and its legitimacy will no doubt be challenged in some circles no matter which side is victorious,” says Slusarchuk.

He believes a bitter, contested election would also potentially have many negative consequences and would represent the very definition of uncertainty which is something gold hedges against.

"I believe gold has explosive upside in the coming months and this is predicated on economic and financial conditions, but the uncertainty of the election outcome will only serve to accelerate its upward trajectory,” adds Slusarchuk.

Price Action

The SPDR Gold Trust GLD 0.42% was up 0.37% at $179 at the time of publication Monday, while the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF GDX 1.71% was up 0.89% at $38.55.