Gold Gets A Bid; Stocks Resume Skid

Gold is doing pretty darn well following its 24-week up run having turned down two weeks ago (as measured by the weekly parabolic trend). The two supportive areas to which we've repeatedly referred -- The Whiny 1290s and The Box (1280-1240) -- are thus far doing their part following price's fall from the year-to-date high of 1349 on February 20 to this past week's low of 1281. And given Mario Draghi's tepid EuroZone along with practically no growth in February's stateside jobs creation, Gold settled out the week Friday at 1299, a nice 1.4% bounce off that low.

Of course, to look at the above Gold Scoreboard, this year's track-to-date remains meshed with those of the prior three years, reminding us that -- broadly -- price hasn't  really gone anywhere. But once Gold regains Base Camp 1377, cue Katie to bar the door -- or perhaps better stated -- throw it wide open as we expect the then ensuing mo-mo bull stampede to shoot price up toward our (conservative) forecast high for this year of 1434. And upon such event, those price tracks of the prior three years shall notably appear as sagging into history.

Now in turning to Gold's weekly bars, the dashed regression trend line across the entirety of the chart is perceptibly rotating from down toward up. Its rate of decline at the conclusion of 2018 was 2.6 points per week. Have slowed that rate ever since, its decline is now only 0.8 points per week. Barring Gold having a severe fallout, that dashed line in about a month's time should be rising, almost coincident with some statesiders having to liquidate assets to pay Uncle Sam his tyrannical income tax. April's gonna be fun. The latest data available (2016, i.e. before the newly revised tax code) from the Tax Foundation states the top 10% as paying nearly 50% of the overall tax burden. And if you're in that top 10% and need tax dough, where do you go? Got stocks?  Between now and then, let's look at least for Gold to hang in there:

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