Gold Forecast: Volatility Near Massive Support
- The gold market fell a bit during the early hours on Monday but has since turned around to show signs of strength.
- By doing so, it suggests that the market is going to continue to find buyers on dips and it's probably worth noting that the 50-day EMA has in fact offered a little bit of support.
- Even if we were to break down below that there are quite a few areas that I would be paying close attention to before I thought about getting negative on gold.
Massive Support Underneath
The $2,300 level underneath obviously is an area that will attract a lot of attention from a psychological standpoint anyway. So, with that being said, I do think it's probably only a matter of time before we bounce. It's really not until we break down below the $2,280 level that I would be somewhat concerned.
Even then, I think all you're looking at is a short-term pullback that traders will probably look for value at lower levels, maybe closer to the $2,150 level, where the 200-day EMA just happens to reside right now. From a longer-term outlook, I do believe that gold has further to go, mainly for two specific reasons. The first one, of course, would be geopolitics. We have wars in the Middle East and Europe that will continue to attract people towards safety hard assets such as gold.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Furthermore, we have profligate borrowing by governments around the world, especially you America, and therefore I think it will continue to drive the value of something that's tangible up. So even if we do pull back from here, I'm looking to buy gold, not short it. And in fact, I don't think I would short gold until we dropped below the $2,000 level. So, this is a one-way trade for me. It's just a matter of am I finding value here or do I have to find value at a lower level?
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