Gold Falls Below $1,300 After Powell’s Testimony: What To Expect From The ECB Meeting?

Will Powell and Draghi Support Gold Prices?

However, we should not forget about monetary policy. After all, the gold prices started to decline before the Wall Street Journal’s report on possibly resolution of the trade tensions between the US and China.

Last week, Powell testified before the Congress. So maybe it shed new light on the Fed’s stance? Not really. The Chairman reiterated that the Fed could be patient, or that it is in “no rush to make a judgment” about further changes to interest rates. However, Powell offered some details about the Fed’s balance sheet policy. He confirmed that the US central bank will stop shrinking its balance sheet later this year, and he also said that the process would leave the balance sheet at about 16-17 percent of GDP, or at around $3.2-3.4 trillion:

We’ve worked out, I think, the framework of a plan that we hope to be able to announce soon that will light the way all the way to the end of balance sheet normalization (…) We going to be in a position ... to stop runoff later this year.

However, these details should not move the gold market significantly, as investors have already priced in the quicker normalization of the Fed’s balance sheet. What is important here, however, is that the view that the Fed has made recently a U-turn might be exaggerated. The pause in hiking is not the same as a U-turn. The stock market calmed down, so we could see a return to a more hawkish policy later this year. After all, the GDP ended up at 2.9 percent in 2018, matching 2015 as the biggest increase since the Great Recession. In 2019, the US economy slowed down, but it remains on solid footing.

Another important factor for the gold market right now is the ECB’s monetary policy. As a reminder, the ECB holds a meeting on Thursday – and investors extend bets that Draghi will turn out to be more dovishSuch expectations strengthen the US dollar against the euro – and gold. Indeed, although the Fed has recently paused, the divergence in monetary policies between the US and other major economies is still large. And the gap between bond yields in America and Germany has actually widened recently. However, with so much dovishness priced in before the ECB meeting, Draghi may fail to beat market expectations, which should help the euro and gold.

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