Gold Fails To Maintain $1550

In last weeks newsletter, I mentioned the potential for a terminal spike in gold above $1550. Prices hit $1565 early Monday morning but failed to maintain $1550. Gold futures finished the week below support at $1535. A collapse below $1500 in the coming days/weeks would support a replay of the 2002 pattern and perhaps a backtest of the $1360 breakout area.

Silver broke sharply higher jumping to $18.76 by Thursday, and I see the potential for a bull market breakout. However, gold failed to confirm the move above $18.00. To defend the breakout hypothesis, silver must maintain critical support near $17.20 in September.

Miners formed a bearish evening star candle pattern, and I see the potential for a meaningful top. Significant downside follow-through would advance this perspective. A multi-week correction would setup an excellent buying opportunity in several individual mining companies.


University of Michigan consumer sentiment broke to a multi-year low in August. Gold performs best when sentiment declines. It looks like the breakdown is complete, and sentiment should trend lower over the next decade.


I’ve noted before the similarities between the 2002 breakout in gold and now. In December 2002 gold broke out of a multi-year consolidation. The initial breakout rally surged to the bear market infection point before finally correcting. From there, prices declined to backtest the breakout point and 200-day MA.


Fast-forward to now. Gold broke out of a multi-year consolidation in June and confirmed a new bull market. The initial breakout rally surged and spiked above the bear market inflection point ($1550). A breakdown below $1500 in the coming days/weeks would support a cycle peak and advance the possibility for a backtest of the $1360 breakout area. If established, I would consider that an excellent buying opportunity.


Silver is above the long-term trendline, and we may have a bull market breakout. I’m a little skeptical for a couple of reasons.

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Disclosure: None.

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