Gold, Crude Oil Outlook: Weaker Dollar And Reflation Hopes Underpin Prices

Gold prices climbed for a third day as the US Dollar fell alongside Treasury yields, alleviating pressure on precious metal prices. Last night, US Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen boosted market confidence by showing her support for Biden’s US$ 1.9 trillion stimulus package in the Senate confirmation hearing. Yellen’s comments revitalized hopes for reflation and brightened the prospects for economic recovery, sending risk assets broadly higher alongside gold and crude oil prices.

Reflation hopes may encourage investors to park their money in equities in search of yields and growth, resulting in a relative underperformance of gold compared to stocks. Gold prices have lagged behind the S&P 500 stock market benchmark since August 2020, and this gap may widen further if economy rebounds at a faster-than-expected pace with the rollout of Covid vaccines and more fiscal aid.

Gold, Crude Oil Outlook: Weaker Dollar and Reflation Hopes Underpin Prices

Source: Bloomberg, DailyFX

Nonetheless, a large fiscal spending package also points to a higher inflation outlook, which will likely lead to lower real yields and underpin gold prices. Precious metals are perceived as a good inflation hedge and store of value, and their prices tend to rise alongside inflation expectations and the amount of quantitative easing.

Looking ahead, gold traders are eyeing President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration later today for clues about his agenda priorities in the first 100 days in the White House, while intense security measures were put in place to prevent political violence.

Technically, gold prices rebounded from the ceiling of the “Descending Channel” after suffering severe selling in the previous two weeks (chart below). The overall trend remains bearish-biased however, as suggested by the MACD indicator. Immediate support and resistance levels can be found at US$ 1,807 (previous low) and US$ 1,855 (50-Day SMA) respectively.

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