Gold Commentary - Wednesday, November 29

US GDP in Focus

The first look at Q3 US GDP rolls in today and markets are looking for a 5% reading, up from 4.9% in the prior quarter. On the back of the volatility we’ve seen in USD this week, and the constant debate around the Fed outlook, the data is drawing plenty of attention. With that attention of course comes volatility risk. Yesterday, we heard from Fed’s Waller that he feels the slowing of the US economy is happening at such a pace that within the next five months, the Fed might well ease monetary policy.


Two-Way USD Risks

With traders now taking that guidance as a benchmark, any incoming data weakness will be seen as endorsing this narrative, putting pressure on USD. On the other hand, any fresh strength in key data readings will serve as a challenge to this view, instead strengthening the voice of those Fed members calling for further hikes.


Bullish Outlook for Gold

Gold prices have appreciated considerably over the last month against the backdrop of a weaker US Dollar. Should this dynamic remain in place, we might well see gold prices breaking out to fresh all-time highs. Any print today below the 5% the market is looking for will certainly see fresh USD selling, paving the way for a breakout in gold. However, if we see forecasts bettered, this should see some profit taking on the rally for now while traders await the next catalyst.


Technical Views

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The market is currently sitting just below the 2069.41 level. This is a major multi-year resistance level for gold and represents a significant hurdle or bulls. Previous challenges of the level have yielded lengthy reversals lower. As such, if we break above this level, this might well usher in a new era for gold, paving the way for higher prices in coming months and years. Below, 1073.51 sits as key support with the bull view holding while price remains atop this level. 

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