Gold Breaking Out

Gold prices have traded up to fresh record highs this week as the US Dollar continues to trail off ahead of tomorrow’s keenly awaited NFP data. Yesterday, comments from Fed chair Powell did little to inspire USD buying with Powell simply reaffirming the message that rate cuts are still very much on the agenda this year, but patience remains key. A recent slew of weaker-than-forecast US data has weighed on USD, allowing for gold prices to trade higher by around 9% this year. With traders sensing that the Fed might be forced to cut rates ahead of its own projections, the backdrop is set for a pivotal day tomorrow.

US Jobs Data in Focus

Unexpectedly strong labour market data in recent months has been a key driver of the hawkish argument within the Fed, fuelling pushback against near-term rate-cut calls. However, should we see a drop in tomorrow’s data, on the back of a string of recent data undershoots, this will likely fuel a sharp repricing of the market’s Fed rate projections, sending USD lower and giving gold fuel to run further higher. 

Bearish USD Risks

With both the ADP employment number and JOLTS job opening seen undershooting forecasts yesterday, USD is weaker ahead of tomorrow’s release which is expected to see the headline NFP fall below 200k from 353k prior. If this drop is confirmed, or seen deeper, this should be firmly bullish for gold into next week, with an accompanying drop in wages likely to amplify USD sales.

Technical Views

Gold

Price is now testing above the 2149.72 highs as the rally off YTD lows continues to gather pace. Momentum studies are bullish here, supporting the move. Should we see any correction lower from current levels, 2069.41 and the bull channel lows will be the key support to watch. 

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