Gold Commentary - Friday, December 1

Gold Near Highs

Gold prices are starting the final month of the year in the green today. The market enjoyed a solid rally across November and is now holding just below all-time highs ahead of today’s keenly awaited US manufacturing PMI. On the back of the recent drop off in US inflation and labour market readings the market has heavily scaled back expectations of any further Fed tightening in coming months. Instead, the Fed is now widely expected to hold rates unchanged before actioning initial rate cuts in H1 next year. Against this shifting view USD has weakened heavily in recent week.

 

Today’s Forecasts

Given the current outlook, any further data weakness should drive USD lower through the end of the week allowing gold prices to break out. Looking at the forecasts for today, the market is expecting the manufacturing PMI to rise to 47.9 from 46.7 with the prices paid component forecast to rise to 46.1 from 45.1. Given the bullish expectations, any undershooting of these forecasts will be sharply negative for USD, helping boost gold.

 

Powell on Watch

Away from this data, traders will also be watching Fed chairman Powell who speaks later today. Given the tone we’ve heard from various Fed members over the week who’ve spoken in favour of keeping rates on hold for now, there is room for Powell to drive USD lower if he echoes these sentiments.

 

Technical Views

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Gold

The rally in gold has paused for now ahead of the all-time highs around the 2069.41 level. The focus for bulls is on a break of the level and a continuation higher. However, bearish divergence in momentum studies suggests risks of a correction lower. If seen, 1973.51 will be the key support to watch. 


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