Gold Bounces Back Into The Box

Let's begin with this from the "You heard it here first department.", or likely so: per the above Gold Scoreboard in price settling out the week yesterday (Friday) at 1254, Gold to this point of the year is now higher than it was at this time in each of 2017 (1249), 2016 (1176), 2015 (1071), 2014 (1204) and 2013 (1230) -- not by much in most of those cases -- but nonetheless higher.

So does that mean "This is IT"? Per the Scoreboard's right-hand panel, "IT" ought have been in continuance by mitigating ongoing currency debasement through those same five years. At the very least, what "IT" for the present is comes from that penned a week ago with respect to Gold's weekly bars and their parabolic Long trend's rising blue dots: "...In the new week, such trend would end upon price dropping through the rightmost dot at 1204, the alternative being to scamper up into the safety and serenity of The Box only to then spend many a month therein..."

And now a week hence, behold Gold's having bounced up into The Box (1240-1280), that infamous purple-bounded zone wherein Gold has seemingly lived forever for some five years. Indeed for the 1261 trading days from five years ago-to-date, Gold has been in The Box during 362 (27.8%) of them. Five years of nothing and here we are again. It is what "IT" is, baby:

Of course, Gold's 2.1% gain for the week did not conclude without some rejoicing, a valued reader writing in last night of a 7.3% miners mix gain, which is how one expects the 3:1 (miners:metals) leverage ratio to play out. Moreover, December a year ago was kind to Gold in sporting a 2.6% monthly gain. But prior Decembers from 2011 through 2016 have recorded only one which was up, and only meagerly so, that being 2014's +0.8x monthly gain.

Yet what's different this time around is the stock market's working down through what we continue to target as a full 27% correction (by the S&P from its 2940 all-time high this past 22 September down to 2154 which is the 2016 pre-election support shelf). The timing for this per additional analysts having recently jumped on the bandwagon suggests the correction running its full course into next year, (as hardly did the 50%+ corrections of 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 careen down in straight lines). Thus today, while Gold is not notably getting its normal currency debasement bid, it may be at least getting the safe haven bid: for the S&P's corrective three years 2000 through 2002 the net rise in Gold's price was 20.2%; for 2007 through 2009 the net rise was 71.8%. Repeat that through this S&P 500 correction and for Gold would certainly be "IT".

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