Global Energy Capex At Record Lows

“Around here there are three kinds of investors. Growthies, guys who love growth stocks, don’t care about valuations, and only buy stocks with strong price momentum; geeks, who are quants and invest off computer models; and shitheads, who are value investors. In other words, they buy the stocks of dirty, shitty companies because they are cheap.” ~ Barton Biggs, “A Hedge Fund Tale of Reach and Grasp”

Good morning!

In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at corporate profits, a market “squeeze”, Hedger positioning, grossly extended semis, repaired balance sheets, bearish USD drivers, overbought emerging markets, gold’s bull run, a lagging Russian steel stock with 3x potential and more…

Let’s dive in.

***click charts to enlarge***

  1. We’ve been noting in these pages how the consensus continues to set the earnings hurdle low, giving the market an easy bar to clear. @edclissold of NDR, shared this chart this week, writing “ Of all the questions I gotten about the market recovery, surprisingly few (to me) have been about corporate profits. $SPX on track for a second consecutive record beat rate. Counterargument: estimates were cut so much that they were easy to beat. True, but…” The consensus is still too low on the next Qs numbers. Corporate profits are seeing a strong rebound, expect another easy beat…

  1. I keep coming back to this positioning chart because it paints such a different picture than all the others. It shows net commercial positioning in all major indices is positive. Meaning, conversely, that specs are still short. This is typically more common at bottoms than tops.

  1. This is from JPM via The Market Ear.

“Squeeze: a >$1 trillion better demand outlook for equities in 2021

And is not even Powell. JPM sees a much better supply/demand outlook for equities in 2021. Take it away, Nikos:

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Disclaimer: All statements are solely opinions and are for educational purposes only.

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