Give Peace A Chance

All Trump is saying is give peace a chance, or maybe Senator Rand Paul a chance. Or maybe peace with Iran is just chancy. Oil prices tanked, breaking key support on a report that President Trump is going to send Senator Rand Paul to Iran to talk peace. Oil traders know that this can be a game-changer for oil as the potential lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil could tip the balance of the market from being undersupplied to being oversupplied. Yet an admission by Iran that they seized a UAE oil tanker may make talks more difficult.

We know from past experience that when there are expectations of Iranian oil coming back to the market, it is very bearish. The original lifting of sanctions by the Obama administration to the Trump waivers to buyers of Iranian oil caused significant selloffs in oil. Yet it might be a little too early to start counting those barrels.

Fox News reports that Iran has admitted to seizing a foreign tanker with 12 crew members accused of smuggling oil in the Persian Gulf, the country's state TV says. “The seizure comes as tensions mount between the U.S. and Iran over the unraveling nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers, and days after an oil tanker based in the United Arab Emirates disappeared off trackers in Iranian national waters.” It is not clear whether this admission will stall the Trump/Paul peace talks. Iran had denied that they had seized the tanker yesterday but that was yesterday.

Iran may actually use this tanker as a bargaining chip in talks, yet Iran still is blaming the U.S. for all of its problems. At first, the Iranian missile program was on the table and now it is apparently off the table.

Bloomberg News reported that Iran says that “The U.S. shot itself in the foot” by pulling out of the nuclear accord with Iran, Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said, offering a grim outlook for the chance of opening talks with President Donald Trump. Zarif, in an interview Wednesday with Bloomberg Television, also accused European countries that are part of the agreement of failing to carry out their own commitments under the 2015 deal and after the U.S. withdrawal. He said, “promises to allow Iran to sell oil and repatriate money have failed to materialize.”

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