A name-brand fund manager now calls for a recession soon and is buying gold. A name-brand investment bank thinks that economic conditions today are worse than they were during the financial crisis.

Naturally, we would expect the metals markets, with their safe-haven statuses, to be rip roaring higher. But they really are not.

True, gold has looked pretty strong over the past few weeks thanks to tariffs and trade wars. And it even got the benefit of a short-term trendline breakdown in the U.S. dollar late last month for a little extra juice.

But in the bigger picture, it has not yet really broken out.

This weekly chart shows the market at resistance in the 1350-1385 area. Basically, no breakout – yet.

Now, I can see that a move above resistance will break a six-year basing pattern to the upside and that would have some bullish long-term implications. I could also see that targeting as high as 1700, albeit over many months.

So why, then, does silver look so, ahem, tarnished?

This market, as well as platinum, has been bumping along the bottom for literally years and that has pushed the gold/silver ratio to a 26-year high.

What does that mean? Honestly, other than silver being cheap relative to gold, I don’t know. More of an interest in hedging with gold vs. the combination hedging/industrial use for silver? That would lean on stocks.

But keeping it in the metals, it suggests that with silver weak and gold at resistance, the yellow metal is not about to break out. The ratio could revert somewhat back to the mean with falling gold, staying within the base.

That makes sense when we see the greenback jump up sharply today (June 14). Of course, that move is a single event, not yet a trend although it does look like a continuation higher of the 2019 trend, if not the 2018-2019 trend.

Therefore, I’m still not backing up the truck for gold but then again, if the market changes – a base breakout – then I will change my mind.