Forex And Commodity Seasonality For August

Here are the historical tendencies for forex pairs and commodities in the month of August. Statistics include how often the prices rise or fall, and by how much, on average. 

Statistics are based on monthly opening and closings prices, and do no reflect overall volatility that occurs during the month. Commodity statistics are based on a continuous futures contract, which may differ from specific contract statistics.

Statistics are run on USD Index, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/MXN, NZD/USD for currencies and on light crude, natural gas, corn, gold, silver, copper, coffee, sugar and wheat for commodities. Only the commodities and currencies on this list that tend to rise/fall in August more than 68% of the time (over the last 20 years) are discussed below. Other assets that are noteworthy but that don’t meet that 68% threshold may also be discussed. Applicable ETFs are also mentioned.

Seasonality statistics are best utilized in conjunction with strategies that provide exact entry, exit and risk management protocols. For examples of such strategies, see the Forex Strategies Guide For Day and Swing Traders.

Forex Seasonality For August

AUD/USD: The AUD/USD has fallen in 14 out of the last 19 years (74%). The average loss is -1.4%.

This would indicate the AUD/USD forex pair could be under downward pressure in August.

The Australian Dollar ETF (FXA) has dropped in 9 of the last 11 years (falling 82% of the time), declining -1.9% on average.

audusd seasonal tendendies

GBP/USD: The GBP/USD has fallen 13 out of the last 19 years (68%). The average loss is -0.8%. Over the last 10 years, the pair has fallen 80% of of the time, dropping by -1.6% on average.

This would indicate the GBP/USD forex pair could be under downward pressure in August.

The British Pound ETF (FXB) has dropped in 8 of the last 11 years (falling 73 % of the time), declining -1.3% on average.

GBPUSD seasonal tendencies

USD/JPY: The USD/JPY has fallen in 13 out of the last 19 years (68%). The average loss is -1.3%. More recently, the results are mixed. Over the last 10 years, the USD/JPY has fallen only 50% of the time, but has still lost -0.5% on average.

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Disclosure: The author doesn’t have positions in these stocks currently, but may initiate positions if the stock prices slide a bit lower.

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