Food & Fuel Shortages Ahead - The Corn & Ethanol Report
We kickoff the day with Fed Bostic Speech at 7:00 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., JOLTs Job Openings, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, and JOLTs Job Quits at 9:00 A.M., 52-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., API Energy Stocks, and LMI Logistics Managers Index Current at 3:30 P.M.
On the Corn Front the EIA released the Monthly Biofuels Capacity and Feedstock Update. The report showed the renewable diesel production capacity in July increased by 4 Mil Gal/year to a record large 3,704 Mil Gal/year and was 77% larger than a year ago. Additionally, July soybean oil used for biofuels was up 5% from June and 33% larger than last year at a record large 1,273 Mil Lbs. Total domestic soybean oil use in July was 3% larger than a year ago, but this marked the 2nd consecutive month that biofuel use was larger than domestic food consumption. Biofuel’s share of domestic jumped to a record large 57%, and total use for biofuels was 34% larger than domestic food use. With renewable fuel capacity expected to nearly double in the year ahead, a greater share of domestic soybean oil looks to be used for fuel. The food vs. fuel price war looks to be just getting started. Corn’s price correction has paused not only in the US, but in Brazilian cash prices and European futures. Markets continue to perform normally. The default position, barring any black swan events, is bearish Aug & Sep and bullish by varying degrees thereafter into the following spring. ARC reiterates that it’s physical supply & demand that dictates futures markets in the long run. The markets perception of physical feed supplies peak’s in late autumn. Physical supplies retreat into the following South American harvest, which has been pushed back further in recent years as more Argentina is likely to seed 70-75% of its corn crop in Nov & Dec, with harvest not schedule to peak until May & June. And Europe specifically, declining crop estimates will keep the need for imports elevated. There also has been a response in consumption to cheaper prices, as the US had flash sales of corn to Mexico yesterday totaling 210k tons, 132 tons of soybeans to China. While corn open interest rose 12,410 contracts in yesterday’s action. In the overnight electronic session the December corn is currently trading at 486 ¾ which is 2 cents lower. The trading range has been 488 ¾ to 485.
More Ethanol & Biodiesel news the profit margins and global participation, the regulators, corn growers and energy producers keep scraping for a fight for fair value and respect with out too many rules. The EPA in September approved efficient producer pathways for Texas-based ethanol plants operated by White Energy Inc. The approvals allow the company to generate renewable identification numbers (RINs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard for non-grandfathered volumes of ethanol. The approvals apply to corn ethanol produced at White Energy facilities in Hereford, Texas, and Plainview, Texas. Each facility currently has a nameplate production capacity of 150 MMgy, according to Ethanol Producer Magazine online plant map. The EPA’s analysis shows corn ethanol produced at a Hereford facility achieves a 31.6% greenhouse gas reduction when compared to baseline gasoline. The Plainview facility achieves a 28.5% reduction. A typical natural gas-fired dry mill ethanol plant achieves a 16.8% reduction. Full story in Ethanol Producer Magazine by Erin Voegele. There were no trades or o[pen interest in ethanol futures.
More By This Author:
No Longer Time To Be Bearish. The Corn & Ethanol ReportHarvest Moon-Quarterly Grain Stocks & Small Grains Summary - The Corn & Ethanol Report
Harvest & Risk - The Corn & Ethanol Report