Fed Targeting March Rate Hike. The Corn & Ethanol Report
We kicked off the day with GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q4, Durable Goods Orders MoM (Dec), Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation MoM (Dec), GDP Price Index QoQ Adv Q4, Initial Jobless Claims (22/Jan), Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (Dec), PCE Prices QoQ Adv Q4, Real Consumer Spending QoQ Adv Q4, Durable Goods ex Defense MoM (Dec), Continuing Jobless Claims (15/Jan), Core PCE Prices QoQ Adv Q4, PCE Prices (Jan/24), Real consumer Spending QoQ Adv Q4, and Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (Dec), Pending Home Sales MoM & YoY (Dec), NY Fed Treasury Purchases 22.5 to 30 yrs. and EIA Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan) and Kansas Fed Composite Index (Jan) at 210:00 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 7-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M.
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On the Corn front, futures ended in the green in yesterday’s trading session. Talk of exports have increased farmer selling which is creating resistance. South America supplies and concern over Black Sea corn exports offered support. One crop group estimates that South American corn crop losses will reach 20 mmt. Informa estimated US 2022 acres at 91.5 million vs. 93.3 last year. The 2022 corn crop is estimated 14,999 million bushels vs. 15,115 last year. In the overnight electronic session the March corn is currently trading at 623 ½ which is 3 ½ cents lower. The trading range has been 627 ½ to 621 ¾.
On the Ethanol front, we are having exports rise and an active cash market. Governor of Iowa Kim Reynolds is pushing for more ethanol blends at the pumps. Rising energy prices are a global concern as other counties are moving ahead with more ethanol blends as they worry about energy shortages. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.
On the Crude Oil Front, this market is poised to punch through $90 a barrel and $100 a barrel will not be far behind. The wildcard factor is the Ukraine. If history is any indicator it is not if Putin invades the Ukraine but when as they hold a stranglehold on energy to Germany. In the overnight electronic session the March crude oil is currently trading at 8842 which is 107 points higher. The trading range has been 8844 to 8634.
On the Natural gas front, the February contract expires today. The cold weather in the lower 48 is supportive and the EIA Gas Storage is today. The Thomson Reuters poll with 17 analysts participating expects withdrawals of 230 bcf to 198 bcf with the median withdrawal of 216 bcf. This compares to the one-year withdrawal of 183 bcf and the five-year average of 150 bcf. In the overnight electronic session the March natural gas is currently trading at 4.051 which is 0.015 higher. The trading range has been 4.175 to 3.990.
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