We know the employment report is going to be good today as President Biden has already scheduled a press conference to take credit for it. That of course is his right as President, but should he not also take responsibility for his misguided energy policies that are starting to suck the wallets dry of Middle America? President Biden and his fact-checkers throw up their hands and say good old Joe has nothing to do with the surging fuel price. Gosh shucks, it’s all about the reopening of the economy. Blah blah blah, you can take credit for the job number that is because of the reopening of the economy. The reopening of the economy because of the vaccines created by Project Warp Speed, that Biden dismissed.

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Yet it is disturbing that under President Biden's watch we have seen gas prices surge as he kills pipelines and puts on drilling moratorium, restricting U.S. producer’s ability to respond to rising prices. Joe says it is not his fault, but I dare anyone to name anything that President Biden has done that might cool prices. Some might say the Iranian Nuclear talks, that have been put off and based on Iran’s behavior looks like they are doomed to failure.

His nemesis Russian on the other hand is profiting from Biden's green dreams increasing exports to the U.S. at a record high level becoming the third-largest supplier of oil to the U.S. behind Canada and Mexico.

While President Biden sees himself as some type of green energy visionary, his policies will damage the economy and make the U.S. economy more vulnerable to an oil price spike and more economic pain for average Americans. President Biden wants to go big on Infrastructure even though his plan is not anything a normal person would call infrastructure will require lots of oil and natural gas to achieve. More and more that oil and gas will be imported because the Biden Administration believes that they can set an example on climate by importing more virtuous foreign oil and gas.

Of course, for future speculators. President Biden is feeding the commodity supercycle. The Supercycle that we have been talking about long before the subject has become popular. Some believe that the Super Cycle was born during Covid, yet I believe the groundwork for the Super-cycle was laid long before that. I would say that the Super Cycle was reborn during covid as it unmasked our underinvestment in oil, gas, and other parts of the supply chain that are now strikingly obvious as the world reopens. We talked many times about the disconnect between commodity prices and the stock market and how the commodity market from a historical basis was way undervalued compared to stocks.

Low commodity prices helped fuel those stock gains and fed a growing demand for commodities worldwide. Now add in record money printing and stimulus and you have a situation where we are seeing this secular bull market.

While some markets have cooed a bit like copper lumber and Iron ore, some are just getting started. Oil and gas are two that are in this Camp. Biden Policies will only help it along as they put ideology ahead of what the economy and the oil and gas market are signaling. That will always lead to higher prices. Let’s hope it does not go out of control and hurt the US economy going forward. 

Natural gas is gaining momentum as Janice Dean from Fox News reports that “An early start to summer with an impressive heat wave moving into the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest and the Northeast this weekend. Temps in the 90’s-to-100-degree range will break records. Heavy rain and the risk for flooding will be the story across the South into next week.” This forecast should also help reignite the grain market where supplies are the tightest, they have been in over a decade. An early start to summer with an impressive heat wave moving into the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and the Northeast this weekend. Temps in the 90’s-to-100-degree range will break records. Heavy rain and the risk for flooding will be the story across the South into next week. The world is looking to the U.S. farmer to avoid a food shortage where prices have risen 40% year over year the biggest year-over-year jump since 2011 according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s monthly report. Oil and products held up well even as the dollar increased, and other markets faltered. Bulls are staying on course as we are projecting another price surge into the Fourth of July. The Return of legal Iranian barrels looks ever more elusive.

We continue to warn, as we have for many months, to get hedged because there are still upside risks in the market.