Energy Report: 100 Million Barrels

There is more evidence that the predictions of “peak oil demand" were greatly exaggerated. OPEC in their latest monthly report predicted that we would see global oil demand exceed 100 million barrels a day in 2022. Just think of that number. The 100 million barrels a day mark is about 20 million barrels above the demand level that peak oil production believers told us we would never be able to produce. The peak demand folks that just a year ago were predicting that COVID-19 had put in place the all-time top for fossil fuel demand, have to go back to the drawing board and reconfigure their estimates. Will peak demand ever occur. The peak demand crowd is probably going to be as wrong as the peak oil production people were 20 years ago.

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OPEC says that "World oil demand growth in 2021 is forecast at 6.0 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s assessment, although there have been some regional revisions. Total oil demand is projected to average 96.6 mb/d. The 1Q21 was revised lower, amid slower than anticipated demand in the main OECD consuming countries. This was counterbalanced by better-than-expected data from OECD Americas in 2Q21, which is now projected to last through the 3Q21. Solid expectations exist for global economic growth in 2022. 

These include improved containment of COVID-19, particularly in emerging and developing countries, which are forecast to spur oil demand to reach pre-pandemic levels in 2022. World oil demand is anticipated to rise by 3.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2022, while total world oil demand is projected to average 99.86 mb/d, with the 100 mb/d marks exceeded in2H22. OECD oil demand is anticipated to increase by 1.5 mb/d, as OECD Americas is expected to rise firmly with US oil demand only marginally below 2019 levels, mainly due to lagging transportation fuel demand.

Non-OECD oil demand is projected to show an increase of 1.8 mb/d, with gains in China and India exceeding pre-pandemic levels, supported by a respectable recovery in transportation fuels and firm industrial fuel demand, including petrochemical feedstock.

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