Currency And Metals Could Be The Big Movers Early In 2020

currency-and-metals-could-be-the-big-movers-early-in-2020Trump is doing his trade thing with China, and part of the 2020 agreement will be a resolution of the US dollar. A weaker US dollar is on the table, as it helps both Trump and Xi. The COT reports gives us a huge hint this is about to happen early in 2020. 

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Lyn Alden makes a great point in this thread about the Dec 2019 repo news.

For years, large U.S. banks were drawing down cash levels (15% to 7% of assets in last 5yr) to buy treasuries (from 15% to 21% of assets). But now they are basically at regulatory limits; can't draw down cash to buy more treasuries. So, the Fed became the new buyer of them.


A lot of people think the Fed is trying to support the equity market, or covering for a bank/fund failure somewhere. Those explanations are possible, but not required. The Fed simply taking over as the primary financier of U.S. deficits is a mathematically sufficient reason.

Luke Gromen sums up the argument for a lower US dollar.

It is an election year in the USA and to stimulate into Nov 2020 he needs an economic boost. Trump can not get tax cuts, or infrastructure spending out of congress, he is left with the Fed balance sheet and a lower US dollar. They are about to step up big time.

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