Thursday, January 25, 2024 7:25 AM EST
Some seasonal trends are counter-intuitive.
For example, the price of crude oil drops despite the start of the heating season in the fall. Would you have known?
That is why it is important for you to check seasonal trends closely. With the help of our seasonal charts, you can do this in a matter of seconds.
But back to crude oil: what is the current seasonal situation?
Crude oil is seasonally strong!
Using a seasonal chart, take a look at the actual seasonal development of the spot price of the important oil type: West Texas Intermediate (WTI).
The following chart shows you the average performance of chained crude oil futures depending on the time of year. On the horizontal axis, you can see the time of year, on the vertical axis the average trend over the past 25 years as a percentage. This allows you to recognize the seasonal trend of crude oil at a glance.
Crude oil, seasonal trend, calculated over 25 years
Crude oil is seasonally firm until July. Source: Seasonax
Two strong phases are coming up!
As you can see on the right of the chart, contrary to the expectations of most market observers, the price of crude oil typically falls in October/November at the start of the heating season.
However, you can also see that there are currently two positive seasonal phases, which even start simultaneously. One is short-term and the other medium-term – so there is a good seasonal opportunity for every type of investor. I have marked the two rises with arrows in the chart. The two phases are as follows:
- February 11 – March 5 with a duration of 22 calendar days
- February 11 – July 1 with a duration of 140 calendar days
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Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular ...
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Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular financial instrument, group of securities, segment of industry, analysis interval or any particular idea, approach, strategy or attitude nor provides consulting nor brokerage nor asset management services. seasonax GmbH hereby excludes any explicit or implied trading recommendation, in particular, any promise, implication or guarantee that profits are earned and losses excluded, provided, however, that in case of doubt, these terms shall be interpreted in abroad sense. Any information provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media shall not be construed as any kind of guarantee, warranty or representation, in particular as set forth in a prospectus. Any user is solely responsible for the results or the trading strategy that is created, developed or applied. Indicators, trading strategies and functions provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media may contain logical or other errors leading to unexpected results, faulty trading signals and/or substantial losses. seasonax GmbH neither warrants nor guarantees the accuracy, completeness, quality, adequacy or content of the information provided by it or on this website or any other kind of data media. Any user is obligated to comply with any applicable capital market rules of the applicable jurisdiction. All published content and images on this website or any other kind of data media are protected by copyright. Any duplication, processing, distribution or any form of utilisation beyond the scope of copyright law shall require the prior written consent of the author or authors in question. Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.
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