Crude Oil Commentary - Tuesday, April 9

Fresh Middle East Tensions

Oil prices remain buoyant today as tensions in the Middle East remain elevated after Hamas has reportedly rejected Israel’s latest ceasefire proposal. The group said the proposal did not meet its demands. Additionally, fears of a fresh escalation of the humanitarian crisis there have risen with the IDF announcing that it has set a date for a new full-scale offensive in Rafah, just days after pulling out all ground troops from the area.


Iran in Focus

With Israel’s war against Hamas continuing, risks of a wider conflict emerging still remain. Iran is reportedly planning to carry out retaliatory attacks for Israel’s killing of a top Hezbollah commander in Lebanon. Additionally, Houthi militant attacks on shipping routes continue to add premiums and disrupt oil supply chains.


Bullish Oil Risks

With the conflict still raging, the risk of a supply disruptions remains a key upside driver for oil prices. The latest headlines around potential Iran/Israel conflict are particularly significant for oil traders given the level of supply at risk in the region.


USD in Focus

Looking ahead this week, alongside developments in the Middle East, traders will also be watching movements in USD around the latest US CPI and FOMC minutes, both due tomorrow. The latest crude inventories data from the EIA will also be closely watched given the fresh surplus seen over the prior week’s data.


Technical Views



The market continues to hold above the 82.59 level and the broken bull channel highs following the latest push higher. While above this area, and with momentum studies bullish, the focus is on a fresh push higher with 89.22 the next target for bulls ahead of 93.47 above. To the downside, 77.64 and the bull channel lows remain key support. 

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