Corn Elliott Wave Analysis

The current recovery of Corn since late August 2024 is just a minor correction of the dominant bearish sequence from April 2022 which still appears to be incomplete from the perspective of the Elliott wave theory. Thus, the current bounce will most likely be followed by another round of sell-off probably before prices reach $475.

In the long term, Corn prices are in the bearish corrective phase. This phase started in July 2012 to correct the diagonal 5-wave sequence from the 70s. Corrective structures -aside triangles- are 3-waves. This corrective phase completed the first wave in April 2020 followed by strong rallies to complete the 2nd wave on April 2022. Therefore, the decline from April 2022 is expected to be the 3rd wave and could extend to $295. Thus, the corrective phase is incomplete a further decline could happen.

The daily chart focuses on this 3rd wave. It appears to be developing into a double zigzag structure labeled in the cycle degree. After completing cycle degree wave w and x, the price is now in the wave y. Meanwhile, y is incomplete - currently in wave (B) of ((Y)) of y. Thus, provided the current bounce for (B) doesn’t exceed 475, wave (C) downside can begin in the coming weeks. Alternatively, if 475 is breached, we can take the rally from the August 2024 low as a new wave ((X)). In either case, the downside should resume.

(Click on image to enlarge)

On the H4 chart, the focus is on wave (B) development. Price is currently in the wave C of (B) which is currently developing as an impulse wave structure. Thus, in the short term, the upside is favored in wave ((v)) of C of (B) toward 458-475 where it’s expected to end and begin the sell-off for wave (C).

(Click on image to enlarge)

Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo

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