Natural gas prices have moved lower so far this week, likely the result of cooler changes in the weather forecast over the weekend. Our forecast yesterday showed a decline in just over 10 projected Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) compared to Friday's forecast.

In terms of natural gas usage, this change equates to roughly 15 to 18 bcf less demand over the next two weeks. The bulk of the change came in the near-term. The projected GWDD total for this week (ending 7/17) was once as high as 104 to 105 and now sits closer to 90 GWDDs.

The forecast "held serve" overnight, failing to gain back any of the lost weekend demand. That said, the outlook is far from "cool", with above-normal temperatures still widespread in this morning's forecast.

In fact, despite the weekend change, we are still projecting that this month has a shot to edge out July 2011 for the highest July GWDD total on record.

The moral of the story here is that, while the weekend change was bearish relative to the end of last week, this is hardly a "bearish" weather pattern, and new days rolling into the back of the forecast continue to be hotter than normal, which, all else being equal, should limit downside to prices, which actually are off this morning's lows by a few cents, gravitating right back to the middle of our long-running continuous prompt month trading range.