Photo by Rodrigo Flores on Unsplash

Cocoa futures in New York remain range-bound within a symmetrical triangle pattern after peaking near $12,000 a ton in mid-April, finding support around $7,000. Futures are rising this morning as traders are concerned about dwindling stockpiles in US warehouses.

New data from ICE exchange-monitored warehouses shows US cocoa stockpiles have slumped to the lowest levels since December 2019. Given the global tightening of cocoa supplies theme, the bags held in US warehouse could extend declines in the coming weeks and or months.

The most-active contract rose as much as 5.6% in New York. Inventories of cocoa beans held in the US have fallen to the lowest in more than four years as tightness in the market force grinders to draw down inventories in exchange-monitored warehouses. -Bloomberg

Bloomberg noted that even though the "cocoa market is expected to flip to a surplus in the 2024-25 season," there is still increasing concern among commercial users that shortages will persist due to West Africa's previous poor harvests, adding, "Cocoa arrivals at ports in top grower Ivory Coast are still lagging behind the prior season by more than a quarter, the latest data shows." 

Higher cocoa costs are continuing to be passed along to cash-strapped consumers.

The iconic US chocolate maker Hershey reported last week that it slashed its sales and earnings outlook for the year as shoppers reduced purchases of higher-priced chocolates and candies. In other words, demand destruction is emerging. 

Nothing to see here. 

Besides consumer demand destruction fears, cocoa prices have been weighed down by expectations of better harvests in West Africa. Prices are still 116% higher than at the start of the year. 

Despite these price swings, oil trader Pierre Andurand remains bullish on the view that the stocks-to-grinding ratio for the world at the end of the year will be at its lowest ever "and potentially run out of inventories late in the year." 

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