Chaos 2020: Will Markets Melt Down If No One Concedes The Election?

As pundits weigh in daily on who has the edge in this year’s political horserace, investors want to know how the election will affect their pocketbook.

It could affect it in a big way. A major disruptive threat looms in the 2020 election like no other in recent history.

It’s not that one candidate or the other would be uniquely bad for markets. Wall Street could be okay with either a Trump or a Biden victory, albeit probably for different reasons.

Both candidates are by now totally familiar. And despite their significant policy differences, either Trump or Biden would be tolerable from the standpoint of America’s biggest corporations – many of which now align ideologically with Democrats.

Yes, the stock market has posted new records under President Donald Trump. But it also posted new records during the second term of the Obama/Biden administration.

So why should investors worry about this election in particular?

Because given the unusual circumstances surrounding mail-in voting, there is a very real risk that no winner will be declared on Election Day… or the day after… or perhaps even weeks after.

If there is anything Wall Street can’t stand, it’s uncertainty.

Volatility traders in the futures market are currently in a heightened potential for a botched election that results in turmoil. According to Bloomberg, the November contest represents “the most-expensive event risk on record.”

Democrats and state officials are already making plans for drawn-out election.

Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson says it could take up to a week to count all of the swing state’s expected absentee ballots.

Democrat pollsters, meanwhile, anticipate Trump to be the apparent winner among the voters who go to the polls on Election Day. Democrat “vote counters” are counting on Biden votes to pour in days later to ultimately put him over the top.

As Axios reported, “A top Democratic data and analytics firm told ‘Axios on HBO’ it’s highly likely that President Trump will appear to have won — potentially in a landslide — on election night, even if he ultimately loses when all the votes are counted.”

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