Calm Down, It‘s A Shallow Gold Correction

Stocks keep pushing higher after a day of indecision yesterday, and the signals are largely still very constructively aligned behind another upswing. Yes, stocks are moving overall up as we approach the Fed statement and press conference. It‘s the precious metals that are on the defensive – a fact I had been writing about both on Monday and Tuesday, as well as tweeting out extensively before leaving for the dentists‘ – I wish that visit was both easier and took less time, and I could prepare a longer analysis for you today instead.

Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).

S&P 500 Outlook

tech, NYFANG and value

The sectoral composition of the SPX upswing, isn‘t exactly the strongest, but that‘s no obstacle to the unfolding move higher. A measured one, prone to brief and shallow intraday pullbacks whose upward bias can‘t be denied though. That‘s the path of least resistance, and I do like also both small caps and emerging markets.

Gold Before the Opening Bell

gold and copper to 10-year Treasuries yield

The outlook for gold deteriorated during the second half of yesterday‘s trading as copper gave up some of its gains while long-dated Treasuries plunged. And overnight, gold felt obliged to fill the void, and went $10 down.

Precious Metals in the Now

gold, silver, miners and long-dated Treasuries

The situation is far from bleak – gold is nibbling at the bearish gap, but it‘s the miners that are providing more than a glimmer of hope. And as silver is losing altitude (short-term painful but of little consequence given how great a future awaits the white metal shortly), we‘re witnessing short-term rebalancing in the precious metals sector. Namely, since long-dated yields have barely moved thus far and copper almost erased its overnight losses already.

Summary

The S&P 500 keeps pushing for new all-time highs, and today‘s Fed isn‘t likely to change that materially. No, I‘m not looking for them making any noises about taking away the punch bowl.

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