Breakout Wednesday: The Corn & Ethanol Report

cargo ships docked at the pier during day

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We start off the day with MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec. 25), MBA Mortgage Applications (Jan. 1), MBA 30 Year Mortgage Rate (Dec. 25), and MBA Mortgage Rate (Jan. 1) at 6:00 A.M., ADP Employment Change (Dec.) at 7:15 A.M., Market Composite PMI Final (Dec.) and Market Services OMI Final (Dec.) at 8:45 A.M., Factory Orders MoM (Nov.) and Factory Orders ex Transportation (Nov.) at 9:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 105-Day and 154-Day Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., FOMC Minutes at 1:00 P.M., and Total Vehicle Sales at 6:00 P.M.

On the corn front, the market took off and never looked back as traders were eyeing the latest news of the current export ban in Argentina. Tighter soybean supply in both the U.S. and Brazil, following record levels of buying by China, has left both countries sold out until the new harvest comes online in February and March.

The Argentina ban on exports will leave the U.S. as the main supply origin for the next two months. Argentina recorded over 1.2 million mt off corn licenses that were registered overnight in one of the busiest days in several weeks. In the overnight electronic session, the march corn is currently trading at 498 ¼, which is 6 ½ cents higher. The trading range has been 502 ¾ to 492.

On the ethanol front, Argentina hikes biodiesel and ethanol prices for the first time since October. The hikes are already raising pump prices. The price of ethanol made from sugarcane will rise 33% with no mention of corn ethanol prices, as it is a required 12% ethanol blend.

Back here in the states, the oldest ethanol plant in the country is closing its doors. Ingredion (INGR) informed suppliers of the decision. With corn prices at or about $5 a bushel and the driving habits of Americans having not turned back to normal due to the pandemic, the move was made.

Ethanol production drops to a two-month low as stockpiles increase. U.S. production was at 934,000 bpd from 976,000 bpd a week ago. Today is the last trading day on January ethanol. There were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session, the April contract settled at 1.566 and is currently showing 1 bid @ 1.310 and 0 offers posted with Open Interest at 45 contracts.

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