Big Rally, Big Profits, And Really Big Changes In Gold Price

Gold price soared to my profit-take level, and the trade is over – congratulations on your profits.

Just a quick (free) update from me today, as if you’d like more details, it’s extremely easy to get them for just $1 as that’s how much it takes to subscribe to my Gold Trading Alerts for the first week given the current quick promotion.

I previously commented on gold’s bullish outlook in the following way:

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There are several techniques that point to gold’s upside potential at about $2,340 - $2,380.

The one that I started the above gold’s-upside-target analysis with is the analogy to the previous times when the RSI moved above 70, then gold consolidated, and then it moved up once again despite that recent overbought status. After all, this is what we see now, so the question was what happened in previous analogous cases.

I marked the previous cases (based on the RSI readings) with orange rectangles, and I then copied the post-consolidation declines to the current situation – they are all marked with dashed, blue lines.

There were two areas that gold is likely to end up in given this kind of analogy. The lower one is more or less at the current price levels, and the higher one is at about $2,340 - $2,380.

The upper area is confirmed by several additional techniques:

  1. The upper border of the rising trend channel based on the 2022 and 2023 lows and the mid-2023 high (marked with black, dashed lines).
  2. The upper border of the rising trend channel based on the late-2023 and 2024 lows and the late-2023 high (marked with purple, dashed lines).
  3. If we treat the recent supposed-to-be-double-top price movement as a flag pattern, then the move that follows it is likely to be analogous to the move that preceded it. I marked that with red, dashed line.
  4. The 1.618 Fibonacci extension based on the 2022 low and the early-2023 high.
  5. The 1.618 Fibonacci extension based on the late-2023 low and the late-2023 high.

When I originally wrote the above, gold was trading at about $2,270, and we closed the long position on Friday, just below $2,250, in less than a week.

The upper border of the trading range was based on point 4 – and it was rounded up. In reality, the more precise number is $2,374.

And in today’s overnight trading…

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Gold price moved to $2,372.45, so it was extremely close. That’s definitely close enough to view this level as being reached (approximately, but still), which means that whatever was likely to happen, just happened.

Given gold’s previous price patterns and post-consolidation rallies, that’s as high as it “made sense” for gold to rally. Even during most bullish circumstances, gold soared “just” as much, and not more. The history rhymes, because people’s emotional reactions to similar price movements don’t change – the greed and fear didn’t subside recently and they are unlikely to be gone anytime soon, so the analogies to the past, and technical analysis in general will continue to work.

More By This Author:

Gold Forecast: Surfing The Extreme Sentiment Waves In Gold
Gold Price’s Relentless Rally
Gold And USD Index Break Higher Together – What Gives?

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