Bears Come Out Of Hibernation On Oil Disruption Fears

Market Notes (4:30pm ET): Anytime the spectre of political unrest arises in an OPEC country, investors flee risk (aka stocks) and put their funds into safer havens, typically oil, precious metals, and bonds--and that's exactly what happened today. Three of the more popularly traded oil exchange-traded vehicles--OIL, DBO, USO--all broke out with 2% being the average gain (that's a lot for these guys).

Gold and other precious metals have been flagging in recent months but they all reversed course about a week and a half ago (some folks must have guessed something was going to happen in the Mid-East). Today, both the Gold Miner etf (GDX) and the Junior Gold Miner etf (GDXJ) tore through resistance levels on twice the normal trading volume. Two Canadian gold miners, Detour Gold (DRGDF, $12.25) and Osisko MIning (OSKFF, $7.91), both hit new yearly highs on heavy volume. Judging from the bullish patterns in all of these charts, it sure appears as if the gold miners are in the early stages of a recovery.

Turning to the movement in the major averages, the fact that the Dow Transports (DTX) lead the way down and closed below 800 support does not bode well for the bulls. While the S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials were barely able to hang onto support, the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the small-cap Russell 2000 slipped below their support levels. Another nail in the coffin for the bulls is that for the past week the VIX has been slowly rising off of a multi-year low, and today was the first time it closed above the 12 mark. An escalation in Mid-East tensions will certainly increase market volatility--hope you bought some put protection last week when options were cheap!

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance: 

SPX 1926.5/1943.5 
DTX 794.5/813.5 
DJIA 16700/16840 
Nasdaq 4286/4328 
RUT 1156.6/1165.4 
VIX 11.7/12.8 (rising VIX is bearish) 
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.3 (rising Trin is bearish) 
Average VWAPs: +44/-104 (bearish) 

Disclosure: None.

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