Autumn Begins As We Move Closure To Harvest. The Corn & Ethanol Report

We started this first day of Fall and Turnaround Tuesday with Redbook YoY & MoM (19/SEP) at 7:55 A.M., Existing Home Sales MoM (JUL), Existing Home Sales (AUG), Fed Evans Speech, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (SEP) at 9:00 A.M. Fed Chair Powell Testimony at 9:30 A.M., 119-Day & 42-Day Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 2_Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., Cold Storage at 2:00 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.

On the Hurricane front, Tropical Storm Beta is causing more disruptions with the slowly moving storm producing long rainfall from the middle of Texas and spreading to the shores of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, and the impact could not be worse in this busy season of activity. The National Hurricane Center is also tracking Disturbance 1 which has a low chance of Cyclone Formation and moving slowly through the Straits of Florida which we all hope will dissipate. Hurricane Teddy moving north-northwest at 22 knots, with the cone continuing to show it will bounce off the Maine coastline and veer to portions of Canada, with Watches and Warnings in effect for Novia Scotia, Prince Edwards Island, and Newfoundland. And finally, Paulette will hopefully diminish, and the U.S. coastline can finally catch a breath air… Let’s not forget our first responders fighting the fire in the U.S. Northwest. God Bless You people!

On the Corn front, the market sold off with anxious sellers worried about the Coronavirus or headlines about the banks which made funds move more quickly out of the grain complex. Fund selling made it easy for traders to cash in. Profits are great and these traders may will re-enter at cheaper prices. According to Ben Potter with Farm Progress the USDA had corn progress slower than expected. But seriously folks.. What else could go wrong? Nothing! In the heart of the CORNBELT heading into this harvesting season we see Illinois (4%) harvested., Indiana 5%, Iowa at 4%. And now we will look at quality... I do expect the export market to pick up, while it is to early to talk about this vote harvesting season. In the overnight electronic session, the December corn is currently trading at 371 which is 1 ¼ of a cent higher. The trading range has been 372 ½ to 365 ¾.

On the Ethanol front, biofuel is making a record-breaking record of 5% to 8% in the United Kingdom for transportation. Erin Voegele with Ethanol Producers magazine tells us, doing the count and this recovery, due to smart business we have created an export market we would not have thought before the pandemic. When this industry realizes the benefit of this export market not to mention domestic gains, we will have another valued commodity. There were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The October ethanol settled at 1.325 and is currently showing 1 bid @ 1.200 and 0 offers with Open Interest at 39 contracts.

On the Crude Oil Front October, crude oil is expiring today. I also believe this market will have seller’s remorse as we track the storms in the Gulf of Mexico and come to the realization that there is demand. We may start seeing demand destruction will become a buyers-market when all the problems will be a definite sign trader will find a second market for energies if needed. In the overnight electronic session, the No

November crude oil is currently trading at 3998 which is 44 cents higher. The trading range has been 4026 to 3936.

On the Natural Gas Front, I am a believer this market is poised for take-off. Granted, in the overnight electronic session and trades the past two days have traders squaring during the election. This fuel will be a great sign to exports, let alone domestic consumption. The benefits from this fuel to our economy will show little time to reap the benefits. In the overnight electronic session, the November natural gas is currently at 2.687 which is .023 lower. The trading range has been 2.742 to 2.630. Remember traders may be playing the spread between cash and nearby October spreads.

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