A Coffee Price Forecast For 2019

When we look at the 9 year COT statistics, especially the center pane, we see an abnormal situation. The amount and time that commercials are long is unusual. It has happened before in the past, but not as long and as heavy as in 2018.

These are the type of extreme futures market situations that will not last forever. It will adjust, likely together with a strengthening Brazilian Real.

coffee price forecast COT 2019

Coffee Price Forecast 2019: The coffee price chart

The long term coffee price chart has an extremely enticing setup.

It has a giant triangle pattern which will resolve in 2019, without any doubt! The million dollar question is in which direction?

The price of coffee is moving to its apex. It is a matter of a few months until this resolves to the upside or downside. The odds favor an upside move. We have seen violent moves to the upside of coffee as indicated in green. Note that coffee tends to move aggressively higher every 2 to 3 years. That’s why smart investors are ready to get in fast once this breakout occurs, timing will be crucial.

The critical price points we have identified:

  • P1 Bullish above $1.17
  • P2 Bearish below $1.0
  • P3 Major peak at $2.0

If there is one thing we know from the past is that coffee moves ultra fast higher once it starts trending (read: once it breaks out).

So it will be of the highest importance to stand ready and act fast, if and when a breakout takes place.

The reasonable high we envision after a breakout on Brazilian Real strength is 2 USD because of the chart structure shown below.

Our Coffee Price Forecast 2019

With all this said we believe that 2 USD might be a reasonable price target for our coffee price forecast 2019. Note this is NOT an average price for 2019, it is more of a peak we expect.

coffee price forecast 2019


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