4 Country ETFs To Shun If Oil Hits $20

Now that OPEC has announced that will continue to pump out more oil despite piling-up supplies and falling demand, traders have set a new bottom for the long-exhausted commodity oil of $20 which is way below the psychologically resistant level of $40. OPEC terminated the production limit after the December 4 meeting.

Though the investing was expecting in the same line as the OPEC top brass Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries are more concerned about market share, per CNBC, rather than falling oil prices (read: Profit From Sub-$40 Oil with These ETFs).

Goldman Sachs viewed the outcome of this meeting as a serious threat to future oil prices and commented that this ‘leaves risks to their forecast as skewed to the downside in coming months, with cash costs near $20/bbl’.

However, all are not as bearish as Goldman since HSBC expect non-OPEC supply growth to decrease from 2.3 mbd in 2014 to 0.9 mbd in 2015, before turning negative in 2016. HSBC also projects Brent crude to average $60 per barrel in 2016, $70/bbl in 2017 and $80/bbl in 2018.
While nobody knows where the bottom is, one thing for sure is that oil is due for a wilder or a rather sluggish run in the coming days. At the time of writing, oil prices are hovering around the $40 level and are giving no signs of a near-term recovery.

While a WTI crude oil ETF like United States Oil Fund (USO) lost over 9.8% in the last five trading sessions, there are other corners as well which are linked to the commodity oil and are equally at risk if black gold slips to $20 or remains stressed (read: Oil ETFs to Watch as Crude Slips to Below $40 Again).
Those corners are key oil producing and exporting countries which have been exhibiting a downtrend, as revenues earned from this commodity account for a major share of their GDP.We have seen this trend in a number of countries so far this year.

Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX)

The Russian economy contracted 4.1% year over year in Q3. The economy shrunk for the third successive quarter with stubbornly low oil prices being mainly responsible. Among the other reasons for the deterioration are the ban on Russia by the West on the Ukraine issue and sky-high inflation.
Oil – seemingly the main commodity of the nation – posed huge risks to the nation. The plunge in oil prices forced investors to think twice before investing in Russia even at bargain prices. In fact subdued oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar on the Fed lift-off bet put pressure on the Russian currency ruble which lost about 17.2% in the last one year against the greenback (as of December 4, 2015).

RSX is the most popular and liquid option in the space with an asset base of $1.83 billion and average trading volume of more than 8 million shares a day. The energy sector accounts for about 43% of RSX, which charges 61 basis points as expenses. The Zacks ETF #4 (Sell) fund advanced 5.9% but lost 6.5% in the last five trading sessions (as of December 7, 2015) (read: Russia: Surprise BRIC ETF Winner So Far This Year).

Global X FTSE Norway 30 ETF (NORW)

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