Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered as the price action at the support level of $3,563 was unfortunately not strong enough to trigger a long trade entry, although it acted as a good and accurate support level.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades may only be taken before 5 pm Tokyo time today.

Long Trades

• Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $3,450 or $3,274.

• Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.

• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.

• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trades

• Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $3,550 or $3,732.

• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.

• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote last Thursday that I would take a bullish bias above $3,732 and a bearish bias below $3,563. I cannot see either outcome being more probable than the other, but the price action does look right for a breakout in either direction on higher volatility soon.

I was right about the key levels, which all held, but wrong to expect a major breakout, which only happened finally just a few hours ago.

The price is behaving very technically, there is no long-term trend, key levels are being respected. The Dollar is strengthening which gives more weight to the bearish case. A move down over the next few hours looks like the most likely outcome, to the next support at $3,450.

There is nothing due of high importance due today regarding the USD. It is a public holiday today in the USA.