Weighing The Week Ahead: Can Feedback Alter Trump’s Course?

The economic calendar is significant, but fundamentals are taking a secondary role. The Friday Presidential tweetstorm raised uncertainty on trade, the global economy, Fed policy, taxes, and traditional alliances. Attention now turns to the reaction. Can the widespread negative feedback alter President Trump’s course?

Last Week Recap

In last week’s installment of WTWA, I focused on the recent inversion of the yield curve and the upcoming meeting in Jackson Hole. That was a good guess for the top market issues until Friday morning. With Chairman Powell’s speech in the books and markets calming, the tweets began. The trade war moved a notch higher, and that was only one of many issues.

The Story in One Chart

I always start my personal review of the week by looking at a great chart. This week I am featuring Investing.com’s version. The tags show news events which you can see by visiting the interactive site.

The market lost 1.5% for the week, but if felt much worse. Early gains were erased on Friday. The trading range was 3.6% mostly in a single day. My weekly Quant Corner translates this into a volatility calculation which you can compare both to VIX and to past readings.

The Calendar

The economic calendar is a big one, with housing data, personal income and spending, and consumer confidence. The following week will be even bigger, with many returning from vacations.

Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.

Next Week’s Theme

Despite the significant economic calendar, the President has set the agenda. Expect the punditry to focus on reactions to his most recent actions on trade, taxes, and foreign policy. Pundits will be asking: Can the chorus of protests alter the course of Trump policies?

It is early to speculate about this, since the G7 meetings and weekend talk show reactions will be part of the story. We’ll know more on Monday or Tuesday.

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Disclosure: [If you are troubled by recent market volatility, it might be a signal for a checkup. It could be expensive to act in haste. Is your portfolio making all-time highs? That is also a ...

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