Weekly Wrap: Market Isn’t Likely To Run Out Of Runway Anytime Soon Home

  • Markets continue a slow slog higher as investors seem to agree with Jamie Dimon of J.P Morgan Chase (JPM) that this is “a skirmish and not a trade war.” Time will tell.
  • While major US indices are making new all-time highs, the international picture is much weaker this year as are some of the US market internals.
  • Economic data for the week was mixed, but we are seeing more evidence of rising costs that will compress margins if those costs can’t be passed on.

This week I’m coming to you from the chilly city of Reykjavik, Iceland where I am meeting with some leading thinkers in the ETF world – sharp folks exchanging ideas is always a great way to spend one’s time.

Monday the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost -0.4% and the S&P 500 dropped -0.6%, ending its 5-day winning streak, as the market got jitters over trade wars — again. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fared the worst, falling -1.4%. This left the FAANG stocks down an average of 15% from their 52-week highs. Monday night the Administration made it official that the tariffs were to go into effect on September 24 with a 10% tax that will rise to 25% by the end of the year/early next year. In response, the 2-year Treasury note yield rose to just shy of 2.8%, the highest level in over 10 years.

Tuesday the geopolitical tit-to-tat continued as China responded to the tariffs with 5-10% duties on $60 billion of US imports. The equity markets were unimpressed with either side of the battle as the Dow closed at its fifth-highest ever and the S&P gained 0.5%. Expectations had been that the US was going for more than 10% to start and China’s response was less dramatic than feared hence the meh response by the US stock market.

Wednesday the markets continued on their upward path, ignoring all the heated words coming out of inside the beltway, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones and NYSE Composite all closing in slightly positive territory while the Nasdaq closed just barely in the red.

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