Treasury Yields Rally May Trigger A Crazy Ivan Event (Again) In The Market

Since shortly after the US November elections, we have been clear about our research and our belief that the bullish rally in the markets would continue to drive the strongest sectors higher and higher. In December 2020, we shared an article suggesting our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs and GANN theory indicated a major price peak could set up in early April 2021. On February 3, 2021, we also published an early warning that Treasure Yields were set up to prompt a big topping pattern sometime over the next 6+ months. We followed that up with a February 21, 2021 article suggesting future Gold and Silver price trends may be tied to the moves in Treasury Yields and the resulting stock market trends.

Now that the Treasury Yields have completed what we suggested would be required to start a “revaluation event” in the stock market, we believe that a “Crazy Ivan” event may soon setup in the global markets. Many months back (August 28, 2019), we published an article about precious metals were about to pull a Crazy Ivan price event. This prediction came true in 2020 and 2021. Now, we are suggesting the global markets may pull a new type of Crazy Ivan event – a price revaluation event prompted by the rise in Treasury Yields.

THE YIELDS SETUP

In our February 3, 2021, research article about the Treasury Yields, we suggested that a series of setup processes take place that prompt a broad market correction related to Treasury Yields. First, Yields must fall from levels above the Breakdown Threshold to levels below the Setup Threshold to complete the first stage of the setup. This first stage sets up the potential for moderate sideways price trends nearing a peak, or congestion. The second stage of this setup is that Yields must fall to levels below ZERO. This move creates the potential for one of two outcomes when Yields begin to rally.

  • If Yields rally back above the Setup Threshold and/or the Breakdown Threshold, but then stall and reverse back below the Breakdown Threshold, then the markets will likely stall/congest or enter a sideways/rolling top type of trend for a period of 2 to 6+ months.
  • If Yields rally back above both the Setup Threshold and the Breakdown Threshold and continue to rally higher, then the markets begin to start a sideways/correction event which we are calling a Crazy Ivan event.
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