One indicator that I learned over the day is to look at the difference between 10-year treasury yield and 2-year treasury yield. The chart below shows difference of the 10-year and 2-year treasury yields since 1988. Since 1988, there were three recessions: 1990-1991, 2000-2001, and 2008-2009 (see shaded areas). As can be seen, immediately before the three recessions, the differences of the treasury yields all fell below 0%.

Source: Economic Research – Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

So, are we closer to an economic recession? Based on the chart, we are not there yet. But, we are definitely approaching towards that direction. The difference of the 10-year and 2-year treasury yield is now about 0.5%. Perhaps, we may have one more year to go in this bull market. We need to be careful finding the right entry point as there will be more volatility ahead.