The Short-Term Trend Continues Once More

Regarding the latter issue, there is a bit of my personal political view slipping into the analysis, and I need to make sure that I don't let that cloud my judgment regarding which stocks to buy (basically, I like there to be enough taxes to cover most of our spending).

For now, let's assume that higher yields accompanied by stronger economic growth will help the çyclical stocks and hurt the defensive stocks. Also, higher rates will ultimately hurt the high PE growth stocks, but we just don't know when or how long that will take. We also need to keep in mind that many of the high PE stocks are technology, and technology is high growth as well as cyclical.

Outlook Summary

  • The short-term trend is down for stock prices as of December 11.
  • Contrarian sentiment is unfavorable for stock prices as of November 14.
  • The economy is in expansion as of September 19.
  • The medium-term trend for treasury bonds is down as of October 10 (prices lower, yields higher).
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Disclaimer: I am not a registered investment adviser. My comments reflect my view of the market, and what I am doing with my accounts. The analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, ...

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Texan Hunter 2 months ago Member's comment

Sure in the COVID-19 era, but now we have COVID20 from Houston/UK variant much more contagious and so things with global lock down will be much quicker than last year then watch the VIX rise.