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Kids are back in school, rotations are going manic, and the VVX just cracked 100 while nobody was watching.

That's not random. That's institutional money quietly buying hedges before the storm hits.

Here's what everyone missed while celebrating that CPI rally:

The S&P hit the upper edge of its expected move all week - Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. 

Same exact pattern as last week. We're ping-ponging in a tight box between 6250 and 6450, and when we break out of this range, it's going to be violent.

But the real action? Pure sector rotation madness.

Russell had a two-standard-deviation move. Dow's ripping while Nasdaq sits flat. Small caps got handed out like candy while tech names like NVIDIA haven't moved in two weeks.

The bond market is screaming what Powell won't say at Jackson Hole.

10-year rates spiked from 4.2% to 4.3% this week. I'm calling 4.5% next.

Fed fund futures show 85% odds of a September cut (down from 95% earlier this week), but bond vigilantes are already selling. Hard.

The market's about to learn a brutal lesson: the Fed doesn't control the long end. Not yet.

And then there's crypto.

Bitcoin's showing real sell-side volume. If it cracks below $110K, the correlation trade kicks in and the S&P gets dragged down with it. 

Now that crypto's on every major platform - Think or Swim, Tasty, Fidelity ETFs - the crossover is real. Same margin, same accounts, same forced selling when things break.

The setup forming right now:

• VVX hitting 100+ (institutions buying back-month hedges)
• Correlation breakdown hitting 50/50 advance/decline
• Interest rates moving opposite of Fed expectations
• Two-sided trade finally returning to individual names

I pulled 30% gains on TLT puts and Altria (MO) calls this week. The moves are there if you're positioned right.

Next week's $91 expected move?

I'm taking the over. Again.

We're one exogenous shock away from this marketplace rocking. With volatility this compressed and rotations this extreme, the wrong side gets obliterated when it snaps.

Don't guess which direction. The box is about to break.

Video Length: 00:24:04

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