S&P 500 Forecast: Fresh All-Time High May Set Narrative For Q2 Trading

The Australian Dollar is moving higher on broader Greenback weakness. AUD/USD initially was moving lower on Thursday, threatening to break below a key support level from a Head and Shoulders pattern, but subsequently shifted higher later in the session. The move higher comes despite a worse-than-expected trade report out of Australia that showed weakness in exports.

Friday’s economic event calendar is void of high- and medium-impact events, according to the DailyFX Economic Calendar. Thailand will see business confidence and unemployment data cross the wires, while India will release its foreign exchange reserves for the week ending March 26. While US markets are closed tomorrow, traders will have a close eye on the highly-anticipated non-farm payrolls report, with the consensus estimate slated to print at 647k, which would nearly double the prior month’s figure.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The S&P 500’s break above the 4,000 level saw prices rise above the upper trendline of a Rising Wedge pattern. While technically a bearish pattern, the break above resistance highlights the underlying strength in US markets. And now, with a full retracement of the last leg lower, the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement shifts into view at the 4,064 level.

Alternatively, a move back into the wedge could be viewed as a bearish development. However, given the broader trend higher, any pullback will likely be transitory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing some bearish divergence, although the MACD oscillator is trending higher, pointing to healthy momentum.

S&P 500 DAILY CHART

SP 500 Chart wedge

Chart created with TradingView

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