Monthly Market Monitor – July 2020

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Will gold fall or will the dollar? I don’t know but real interest rates support the view of gold. Gold is signaling weak growth and so are TIPS. 10-year real rates are near all-time lows:

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Most of the long-term trends haven’t changed since the onset of the virus crisis in late February. Indeed, many of them actually accelerated. Short term trends are being influenced by recent dollar weakness and there is some evidence that the weakness may continue. Having said that, I don’t generally try to predict the future since it is basically impossible. We have taken some positions to take advantage of the shorter-term trends but a full tactical shift to a weak dollar portfolio will have to wait for more evidence.

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Market Scorecard

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Disclosure: This material has been distributed for informational purposes only. It is the opinion of the author and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any ...

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