Permits lept to the highest rate since 2007 as builder optimism sets in.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following New Residential Construction Statistics for October 2019:

Building Permits

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,461,000. This is 5.0 percent above the revised September rate of 1,391,000 and is 14.1 percent above the October 2018 rate of 1,281,000. Single‐family authorizations in October were at a rate of 909,000; this is 3.2 percent above the revised September figure of 881,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 505,000 in October.

Housing Starts

Privately‐owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,314,000. This is 3.8 percent above the revised September estimate of 1,266,000 and is 8.5 percent above the October 2018 rate of 1,211,000. Single‐family housing starts in October were at a rate of 936,000; this is 2.0 percent above the revised September figure of 918,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 362,000.

Housing Completions

Privately‐owned housing completions in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,256,000. This is 10.3 percent above the revised September estimate of 1,139,000 and is 12.4 percent above the October 2018 rate of 1,117,000. Single‐family housing completions in October were at a rate of 897,000; this is 4.5 percent above the revised September rate of 858,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 354,000.

Bigger Picture

(Click on image to enlarge)

Easy Year Over Year Comparisons

(Click on image to enlarge)

Year-over-year comparisons look nice across the board, but much of it due to easy comparisons.

10-Year Treasury Yields

(Click on image to enlarge)

Treasury yields and mortgage rates are up off the lows but well below the rates of a year ago.

One also has to wonder about the impact on optimism of a stock market at all-time highs.