E Coronavirus And The Empty Chocolate Factory

Coronavirus continues to expose the Republican Administration. With some Republican supporters still believing that the Coronavirus or reasons to worry about it are hoaxes, suddenly the party leaders are coming in contact with the live virus. I intend to discuss the Fed and my trip to a chocolate factory, but really, the Republican leadership is in a world of hurt.

Republican SenatorTed Cruz is self quarantined. He shook hands with a carrier of the virus. CPAC, the Conservative Political Action Conference, had infected people in attendance. Even Donald Trump shook hands with the CPAC CEO who was exposed to a Coronavirus victim. Vice President Pence attended the conference as well as other Republican leaders.

The lack of test kits are undermining the US economy. When the Swine Flu attacked China last decade, President Obama was do nothing, though more honest than Trump, and got lucky as it was not as serious in the USA. There is a good chance that this virus is more powerful and contagious as a combination. If that is true in the face of no test kits, people will work from home and fly less. This could do more damage to the oil markets which are facing a meltdown from lack of demand already from China and elsewhere.

My Visit to the Ethel M Chocolate Factory

My family went to the fan-favorite Ethel M Chocolate factory the other night. There were 7 customers there, three of us and four others. No tour buses were there. It was so quiet. It was on a Friday night. Airplanes should have been screaming over Ethel M headed to the Las Vegas airport. But there was just a trickle of aircraft. As we got close to home we can look back and see the usual line airplanes hanging in the sky waiting to land. There were only two visible airplanes.

It just seems like common sense that people aren't going to fly unless both these become true: 

1. The cases seem weak and the spread of them slows down naturally.

2. There are enough tests to start really testing on a very large basis.

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Disclosure: I have no financial interest in any companies or industries mentioned. I am not an investment counselor nor am I an attorney so my views are not to be considered investment ...

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Gary Anderson 2 months ago Author's comment

Update 4: Over 1/2 of the Coronavirus cases are in 10 counties. Shut and wall off those counties. Other places should be allowed to get back to work fairly soon. Maybe 2 weeks for the majority of the nation.

Gary Anderson 2 months ago Author's comment

Update 3: After pondering stats and experience in Las Vegas for a week, I think the doomers are overreacting. There are few deaths in any state but Washington state. The virus is weaker than predicted here in the USA.

Ayelet Wolf 2 months ago Member's comment

It's interesting that the death rate does seem to vary greatly by location. In Italy I read it's now over 7%, quite high with nearly 400 deaths per day, though admittedly they do have a large percentage of elderly. It's higher in Iran as well, possibly due to an inferior medical system.

Tracey Reynolds 2 months ago Member's comment

I am unclear if the #coronavirus is actually contagious during the incubation period. If so, I would think it is impossible to stop. But I've read conflicting information about this and can't seem to get a straight answer. Do you know?

Gary Anderson 2 months ago Author's comment

I don't know, Tracey. I think it is extremely powerful and dangerous. Trump has a handful of test kits. We are not prepared. I think it would stop by containing clusters and by eliminating group interactions. China did this. But who knows? The US is a sitting duck without test kits.

Gary Anderson 2 months ago Author's comment

Update 2: NBA stops season. Tom Hanks has Coronavirus. Trump stopped flights from Europe. I think flights should be banned for at least a month in the USA. Trump must now know that this virus is more dangerous than the flu, especially if it clusters. He has been lying about it for two weeks. America does not have enough test kits. Only 5000 out of over 300 million tested!

Angry Old Lady 2 months ago Member's comment

#Coronavirus cases in the US have now shot up to over 1,000. It may look like China here before we know it.

Gary Anderson 2 months ago Author's comment

A company in Seattle was testing for the flu. It offered to retest for Coronavirus and was forbidden from doing so. The people who blocked this company should be criminally responsible.

Wendell Brown 2 months ago Member's comment

A little fear is a good thing - the more people who stay home, the less the virus will spread and the easier it will be to contain. However, the economy will suffer greatly as a result.

Doug Morris 2 months ago Member's comment

True, but there are some industries that will benefit of course. But overall, the economy will suffer. But like all things, this too shall pass.

Angry Old Lady 2 months ago Member's comment

#Trump keeps pretending the #coronavirus is no big deal. I just read that Congressman Matt Gaetz who came into contact with coronavirus patient spent the weekend with Trump. He may find out first hand that the virus is not a hoax after all!

Gary Anderson 2 months ago Author's comment

We all hope the #Coronavirus would fade away. But policy can't assume that will happen. #Trump being surrounded by the virus could ultimately be helpful. Of course, he is likely worried about himself and not his rally followers.

Gary Anderson 2 months ago Author's comment

Update 1: Tim Seymour on CNBC Fastmoney slipped up and said that there were large cap companies with bond troubles. But then he said that he couldn't mention the companies. It is my opinion that CNBC is not your friend, working to restore confidence when people need the whole story. While I doubt that each trader on the show is the voice of CNBC, that company should address this situation and tell us which companies are drowning in debt. CNBC needs to give investors all the info it has. This is my personal opinion.

Norman Mogil 2 months ago Contributor's comment

I agree that we should seriously consider helicopter money. This has always been the last resort deflationary world and it appears that we are heading in that direction.

Dick Kaplan 2 months ago Member's comment

Yes, you are right Norman.