Charts That Matter - Thursday, Dec. 20

Deutsche Bank in my view is the systematically most important bank Ex US and it just dropped below 7€, the default probability keeps on rising and Coco bond yield is now 12.5%. Any attempt to bail out or merge it will negatively effect EURO.

EM bonds, stocks & currencies will outperform developed markets next year, with Brazil being the top pick of traders, investors & analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. I think we will get a great opportunity to buy Brazil over the next six months when dollar tops out and commodities are bottoming.

The @NDR_Research Crowd Sentiment Poll is showing the most pessimism in 2.75 years but is still well above levels seen at 2010, 2011 and 2016 lows. Pessimist extremes are different every cycle, but this suggests there’s more work to do.

US 1-year inflation expectations are negative, plunging since February. Much more than normal seasonality.

Wall Street expects the Fed will pause its rate-hike policy.

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