Bitcoin Price Forecast: Did Elon Musk Materially Alter Bitcoin's Outlook?

Bitcoin has been on the backfoot since clocking a new record on January 8, falling from $42,000 to below $29,000 in January alone. While speculative mania was taking place elsewhere, popular interest in Bitcoin seemed to fade, at least momentarily, and the largest cryptocurrency by market cap looked vulnerable to further losses. Initially bouncing off support around the $28,000 to $30,000 zone, Bitcoin received another boost when Elon Musk mentioned the digital asset in his Twitter bio.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Chart: Hourly Time Frame (January 2021 – February 2021)

(Click on image to enlarge)

That said, it is unlikely the attention Bitcoin received from Elon Musk will have any material impact on the fundamental landscape. Government bodies and financial institutions will remain wary of the anonymity Bitcoin offers in transactions and regulators will continue to assess the cryptocurrency’s role in global markets. On top of regulatory concerns, it remains an immensely volatile asset.

Suffice it to say, the comment from Elon Musk has not resolved all - or even a single - concern critics have surrounding the digital asset but it did provide a technical break higher at a key moment on the coin’s price chart. The break, however, may be enough to alter the coin’s outlook in the shorter term in and of itself.

In my previous Bitcoin outlook update, we highlighted a collection of resistance from the $35,000 to $36,000 area which we noted might see Bitcoin gradually bleed lower unless broken. Well, the barrier was quickly cast aside following Mr. Musk’s intervention. As a result, what looked to be formidable resistance was broken and Bitcoin escaped the series of lower-highs and lower-lows that were beginning to form a bearish pattern on the chart. In turn, the technical break sparked by Tesla's Chairman may have allowed Bitcoin to avoid deeper declines.

As it stands, Bitcoin will have to negotiate resistance derived from an ascending trendline dating back to early January, currently trading around $37,400 if it is to continue higher. A breach of the level could open the door for bulls to take aim at the January 29 high of $38,610.

A move beyond the January 29 high could see BTC/USD drive higher still, with subsequent resistance around the $40,000 mark – which coincides with the January 14 peak – and the all-time high around $42,000.

On the other hand, support from the $30,000 to $28,000 area remains an important landmark for bulls. Should price break beneath the zone, BTC could accelerate downward as support is relatively sparse until the Fibonacci level around $24,230. Thanks to recent gains, prior resistance around the $35,000 may also act as support going forward.