Bears Trying To Take Over But Bulls Are Putting Up A Fight

Market Notes: Is today the start of "Sell in May"?

The mighty Dow Transports couldn't continue traveling in fourth gear and downshifted today leading the rest of the market in the downhill direction. But whether today's move is a minor bump in the road remains to be seen. On the bullish side, the VIX continues to vex the bears by refusing to budge from its newly established level near 12. However, bears may view this as a sign in their favor because the VIX hasn't been able to remain at this contrarian level for long. Supporting the bearish case is the steadily rising Trin. It crossed over to the bear side today with a lot more room for upside movement. On top of that, the Dow Industrials are heading back to test support at 16600 and the Dow Transports are close to testing 780 support. A break beneath those levels could easily send them back to retest major support at 16400 and 760, respectively.

Technical Trade Note: Downward trending stocks: Those of you who like to swing trade based on technicals may wish to take a look at the charts of these mostly over-valued tech stocks--Priceline (PCLN), Amazon (AMZN), Pandora (P)--plus the small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) index. These all have been caught in downward trending channels since early March.

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1890.5/1997.25
DTX 783/790
DJIA 16635/16720
Nasdaq 4112/4132
RUT 1110/1120
VIX 11.95/12.5 (VIX under 12 is extremely contrarian)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +62/-56 (bulls and bears squaring off)


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