August 2019 ECRI's WLI Growth Rate Returns To Contraction

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward declined and has returned to contraction. ECRI also released their coincident index this week.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

In essence, there is no growth forecast in the business cycle six months from today.

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Decreases

Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."
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ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) decreased to 144.0 while the growth rate declined to -0.5%. 

(Click on image to enlarge)


ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 21 countries that can be freely accessed here.

The WLI is one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.

Please see links below for public statements ECRI has made about our cyclical outlook:

- Read ECRI's "Recession Risk, Rate Cuts and the Future Inflation Gauge"

- Read ECRI's "PMIs Have Not Bottomed Yet"

- Read ECRI's "The Elephant in the Room Forcing the Fed Rate Cut"

For a quick glance at the WLI's performance, please see the chart below. 

(Click on image to enlarge)


Click here to review ECRI's recent real-time track record.

For information on ECRI professional services please contact us.

Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.

U.S. Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index. The July economy's rate of growth (released in August) showed the rate of growth declined.

(Click on image to enlarge)

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